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Coronavirus Diary: Monday March 16

Black Monday take 2 (or is that 3)… The DOW (and the other indexes) took a beating today. I am intentionally not looking at my 401k because I know it will just make me crazy.

Remote Working is going well and to be honest because I have been working remotely for the last few weeks it has not been much of a change for me. Though, now I have to share the bandwidth with all the others trying to grab video time. The weather was coldish so there was no walking for me.

Wife and I went to the market for a few extra things: hamburger buns, cans of soup, chicken broth, rice pudding and stuff…. It was a little disconcerting walking past 4 police cruisers to get into the store. Apparently some shoppers were having issues with the limit 2 on TP. I was very conscious of how many people were in the store (it was pretty packed) and how much stuff people touch while shopping. Of course, I’ve been washing my hands like mad and trying to train myself to not touch my face.

Think about that for a minute. How many times a day do you think you touch your face?  At first I am willing to be the response is only a few times if at all… but then really think about it. All of the little itches, brushing hair away, resting your chin in your hand while deep in thought. Better yet, how about when you sleep. Where do your hands really go? I have been finding my hands up under my head lately.. Thus all the hand washing!

I am running a D&D game for my son and his friends and we are trying to figure out how to continue in this new social distancing thing. I am considering either roll20 or fantasy grounds as a service to host the games remotely. But I am dragging my feet on the decision. Maybe part of me is hoping that if I procrastinate enough the problem will resolve itself.

Today was the first Remote Learning day for my daughter. She was up at 8am and had her school day done by 11am – she had a couple of things in math where she needed help. Dad to the rescue!!! I am super proud of the fact she attacked her work without having to be goaded into it.

I crunched some major numbers today and did a data comparison between the US and Italy from a growth rate perspective. Mostly because someone in a meeting said that the US was 2 weeks behind Italy in the evolution of this crisis. What I found was pretty interesting. Both US and Italy reported first cases at roughly the same time (Feb 15th). Italy confirmed cases started spiking Feb 21st while the US spike started on Feb 24th. That is only a 3 day difference. I will admit that Italy’s rate of growth was much fast, while the US took longer to reach the ~1.2 exponential growth rate point… Italy’s spike started there. The US didn’t hit that point until March 2nd (7 days after Italy). There are a ton of variable that could explain this, I point to a culture first. Italy has a very close, very touchy-feely culture and their land mass forces the population into closer proximity. Here in the US we have the concept of personal space and geographically we are largely spread out (exceptions being big cities like New York, LA, Boston, Chicago… funny seems like those are some of the biggest hot spots).

Anyway, I did a quick and dirty data model and developed the impression that Italy may be slowing down and that the US is flattening the curve really well. But time will tell.

I was reading about how testing in the US has been slow and that is making the problem bigger. I’m not so sure about the second part. Yes, we have been very slow to mobilize the testing, I blame the red tape and bureaucracy of an overly regulated process. Not a Red or Blue issue but a nature of government one (the whole history of our government is proof that there is no thing as a fast response… except in some very rare occasions).

No family movie tonight. My daughter’s dance studio sent out a link to online/live stream dance classes. So she danced in the living room learning new routines (Contemporary, HipHop x2, and Contemporary). If you are interested here is the link to the free classes – they are running them all week! http://www.clistudios.com/keepdancing

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